The stage is set for another epic showdown between eternal rivals Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid in the Champions League tonight. After a thrilling first leg that saw Los Blancos claim victory through goals from Rodrygo and Brahim Diaz, the pressure is now on Diego Simeone’s men to turn things around at the Metropolitano. Atletico have never beaten Real in a Champions League knockout tie, but if there’s ever a time to break that curse, it’s now. Can they finally get the better of their city rivals, or will history repeat itself once again?
When it comes to Champions League history, this fixture has always tilted in Real Madrid’s favor. Whether it was the heartbreak of the 2014 and 2016 finals or the crushing defeat in the 2017 semi-finals, Atletico Madrid have never managed to get past their city rivals in Europe’s biggest competition. However, there’s reason for optimism this time around. Atletico have lost just one of their last seven home games against Real, and in cup competitions, they are unbeaten in the last five meetings, winning four. If they want to keep their Champions League dreams alive, they’ll need to make it five tonight.
Los Colchoneros have a mixed record when it comes to overturning first-leg deficits in Champions League knockouts. Out of the six times they’ve trailed after the opening leg, they’ve managed to claw their way back three times—each of those second-leg comebacks happening on home soil. Diego Simeone will take encouragement from last season’s last-16 tie, where his side bounced back from a one-goal deficit to eliminate Inter Milan. Adding to their confidence is their incredible home form in Europe—Atletico haven’t lost a Champions League knockout game on home turf in 28 years, a streak spanning 18 matches since Ajax won at the Vicente Calderón in March 1997.
On the other hand, Real Madrid are yet to win away at Atletico in Europe in three previous attempts, but their reputation in this competition makes them the favorites once again. Last week’s win not only put them in control of this tie but also marked a major milestone—they became the first club to play 500 Champions League matches and win 300 of them. That victory was also their fifth consecutive knockout win in the tournament, extending their unbeaten streak in UCL knockout games to 10 matches—the longest in their storied history.
Los Blancos are also known for closing out ties when they have the advantage. Out of the 22 times they’ve won the first leg in the Champions League, they’ve advanced 21 times, with the only exception being their shock elimination at the hands of Ajax in 2019. Under Carlo Ancelotti, their record is even more formidable—nine knockout wins from nine when leading after the first leg. If history is anything to go by, Real Madrid will back themselves to finish the job. But if there’s one team desperate to rewrite the script, it’s Atletico Madrid.
Date: 13th March 2025
Time: 1:30 AM (IST)
Stadium: Estadio Metropolitano
Location: Madrid, Spain
Oblak; Molina, Gimenez, Le Normand, Javi Galan; Simeone, Marcos Llorente, De Paul, Lino; Alvarez, Griezmann.
Courtois; Valverde, Asencio, Rudiger, Mendy; Tchouameni, Camavinga; Rodrygo, Bellingham, Vini Jr; Mbappe.
Goalkeeper: Jan Oblak (Atleti)
Defenders: Antonio Rudiger (Real), Raul Asencio (Real), Nahuel Molina (Atleti)
Midfielders: Jude Bellingham (Real), Federico Valverde (Real), Brahim Diaz (Real), Guiliano Simeone (Atleti)
Forwards: Kylian Mbappe (Real), Julian Alvarez (Atleti), Vinicius Junior (Real)
Choice 1: Kylian Mbappe (C), Vinicius Junior (VC)
Choice 2: Julian Alvarez (C), Guiliano Simeone (VC)
The author has provided you with the above-mentioned match prediction on the basis of his research, understanding, and analysis, consider the points and make your own decision.
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