Afghanistan’s Qualification Scenario for Champions Trophy 2025

Afghanistan’s road to the Champions Trophy semi-finals is hanging by the thinnest of threads. Their only hope? A near-impossible miracle in the South Africa vs. England clash on Saturday. With an NRR of -0.99, Afghanistan needs South Africa to suffer a staggering defeat – by at least 207 runs while chasing a target of 301. In other words, it’s a scenario that exists more in fantasy than reality.

For England to do Afghanistan an outrageous favor, they would either need to bowl South Africa out for a record-low total and win by a whopping 207 runs or chase down a 300-run target in just 11.1 overs – both scenarios defy belief. On the flip side, a South African victory would not only confirm their place in the semi-finals but also see them top Group B, pushing Australia to second and sealing Afghanistan’s elimination. Realistically, unless Temba Bavuma’s side is utterly dismantled, they are cruising into the knockouts. Even the narrowest of wins would be enough to book their spot.  

AFGHANISTAN QUALIFICATION SCENARIO: #ChampionsTrophy2025 pic.twitter.com/e2bJz1vtAg

— ScoreWaves (@ScoreWaves) February 28, 2025

Meanwhile, rain has been a recurring villain in this tournament, with three matches already washed out in Pakistan. And if bad weather intervenes again, the Proteas will still go through. If the South Africa-England match is abandoned, South Africa will finish on four points – level with Australia – but their superior NRR (+2.140 vs. Australia’s +0.475) will ensure they top the group. Since abandoned matches don’t affect NRR, the Proteas would march into the semis, leaving Afghanistan with nothing but "what ifs." 

As for the pitch conditions, there are serious concerns at the College End, where the bowling run-ups are still damp after a sudden burst of rain caught the ground-staff off guard. The crew is working overtime, using foam to soak up excess moisture while the super sopper tirelessly rolls across the outfield. The big question now is whether the drying efforts will be enough to get play underway in time – or if rain will have the final say once again. 

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